​Goeie naand almal: Hallo Kenya:  A few fine spots in the north and south-east, see yellow. Overcast with scattered showers and thundershower in the west and south-west. The best development in Some time… 

USA: Still some rain patches to the west and north-east of Texas but it does look as if Harvey has left Texas, but being in further inland away from the warm water of the gulf, only but just a tropical depression left. All the areas marked with red are parts of the USA that have storms or normal thundershowers.. The low east of the USA, came close to New York but not close enough. This low that was forecaster earlier is now becoming a cold front and is moving in over the Atlantic. You can go back in time to see that the tropical low over the west coast of Mexico has more or less have come to a standstill. There must be a few very wet spots on the  west coast. 
Most of the significant weather has moved away from Texas, and the time to start rebuild, but the water must reseed first… may take another 24-48 hours… Best of luck, and we have seen there are lots of South=Africans that is living in Houston.  

Baba koue fronte, een suid van PE en dan nog een wes van die Kaap, die een suid van PE kon dalk hoer en daar langs die kus bietjie reën gemaak het, maar ek kan nie dink dat dit veel meer is as 1-2mm nie. Met die oppervlakte trog wat oor die binneland ontwikkel het daar ‘n paar mooiweers wolke opgestel deur die middag, en ja daar kan een of twee weerlig strale wees (wat gevaarlik is as dit voorkom sonder reën) in die kole wat ek met groen gemerk het. Ek sien wel ‘n klompie stasies oor noord KZN wat stofnat (0.2mm) gekry het, maar ai mens kan dit ook nou nie die eerste lente reën noem nie. 
Daar vorm ‘n ietwat sterker oppervlakte hoog oos van die land teen môre namiddag wat koeler en vogtige lug kan injaag oor die  oostelike binneland. Koeler met meer vog voel nie so kwaai koud met dieselfde temperature met lae vog nie. Dis nie vrot sleg nie maar ook nou nie die lekkerste lente dag nie. Oor die noordelike binneland dalk so ‘n graad of twee koeler maar selfs dan is dit nog steeds een van die beter lente dae in ‘n paar jaar.  Dit bly egter koel tot koud oor die suidelike binneland ingesluit die suid-wes Kaap, wat nog so ‘n dag of 2 sal moet wag vir warmer dagtemperature…  

Dit is min of meer wat in die weer gebeur, genoet die aand en geniet die eerste lente dag van die jaar….   

​Ën in Goeie môre almal: Hallo Kenya: A few sunny spots, have marked it with yellow. A few cloudy spots in the north this morning with a few showers. The light green area, no rain but the areas that may see scattered afternoon and evening showers and a few thunderstorms.

USA:  Harvey still hanging around just inland of the Gulf. Cloud cover around the low seem less dense, but that does not mean the rain is gone. Still spots with rain. The tropical low that I have described yesterday to the east of the USA, is now much closer to the north-eastern USA. This low start to show properties of a well defined cold front and may not become a named storm as it start to move away to the Atlantic. The other system, tropical system is off the Mexico west coast, seem to be rather intens… All the areas that are marked with red, is either showers or thundershowers,. I do not look at this in micro state, only an overall picture with the most significant weather. For your local weather, contact your local weatherman, or TV if you have power, or listen to radio updates… 

Ek sien daar is een ou wat graag tropiese stelsels met baie reën wou sien oor Suid Afrika, wel meneer as Jy eers sulke toestande ervaar het sal jy verstaan dat mens liewer nie sulke stelsels by ons wil hê nie. Ons het nie ‘n warm Golf van Mexico nie. Die bron gebied van ‘n tropiese sikloon is warm seewater. Ja, ons sien in die 2de helfte van die somer wel siklone in die Mosambiek kanaal, maar SA se platorand is so hoog dat die siklone platval voordat dit ons gebiede kan bereik. Die noord-kus van KZN is al in die verlede getref deur tropiese stelsels, maar gelukkig gebeur dit nie baie nie.  Meer as 1000mm reën per 24 uur kan geen streek hanteer nie, dit is ‘n enorme klomp water…. 

Die ligblou wat ek ingetrek het oor die Laeveld en platorand is meestal bewolk vanoggend en daar kan enkele plekke wees met beperkte sig a.g.v. mis. – ry versigtig.. Die donker blou, ingetrek oor die sentrale dele dui op sub zero temperature vanoggend, die nagte en oggende wil maar net nie lekker matig bly deur die nag nie. 
Die koue fronte suid en wes van die Kaap wat ek aandui, is alby baba koue fronte, nie vreeslike reën in die fronte nie. 
Meer is daar nie om te sê oor die weer nie, ons sal nog ‘n ruk lank moet wag vir die eerste lekker donderstorms oor die land, ja daar was al hier en daar oor die oos-Vrystaat ‘n paar storms, maar in die sin wil ek sê beter algemene somer donderstorms… miskien dalk ietsie volgende week…..    

​Goeie naand almal: Hallo Kenya: A couple of fine spots in the north and then  most of the south-eastern parts. Cloudy patches in the west with scattered showers and one tiny spot in the north-west with an odd shower.


Harvey still not done with eastern Texas but it does look as if rainfall amounts are starting to go down in Texas. The main rain band seem to be over Alabama, and if I am correct Mobile is situated in Alabama . The extensive rain band seem to have missed New Orleans, I am not saying no rain at all,  regradless, with more rain away from the coast also means that rivers will fill up, dams.. and may in time reach the coastal low lying areas..  To the east of the USA you will see a significant low developing, maybe not a tropical storm as it moves in towards New York but can become a super storm (like Sandy, but at present does not seem as bad..) Regardless the storm will most likely get the name Irma, maybe the US weather service has already named it, anyway that will be the next named storm. Then there is another super storm, Hurricane, on the western border of Mexico… There are other normal storms over the USA, and most of the storms/rain areas are marked with red. 

Hier by ons het die koue front opbeweeg langs die KZN kus met heelwat kouer temperature maar nie veel reën om van te praat nie. Daar was ook nie veel verdere reën na die reën in die Kaap vanoggend nie. Daar vertoon nog ‘n koue front suid-wes van die Kaap. Doe model maak nie veel van die koue front vir die Kaap vir môre nie, hier en daar ‘n reënkol teen die berge.. 
Daar ontwikkel wel ‘n stewige oppervlakte laag oor die binneland, as ek ‘n toename sien in vog vannag kan ek dit seker oorweeg om te dink aan ‘n paar mik en druk storms.. Met warmer dagtemperature oor die noordelike binneland, kort ons net nou ‘n lekker toename in vog om die eerste regte lente storms te begin kry, ja daar was nou die dag ‘n paar mm oor die noord-oos Vrystaat maar dit was 5% storms, hopelik sal ons een van die dae meer na 20-40% storms sien ontwikkel.. amper daar….

Wel, dit is dier storie vir nou, lekker aand aan almal…   

​Goeie môre almal: Hallo Kenya: Mostly sunny in the east with overcast patches in the west with mostly light showers this morning. The light green line between the western border and the light green line, may see afternoon and evening showers and thundershowers. 

 USA: Harvey keep on producing rain over eastern Texas. The low pressure or cyclone low is over the warm water of the Gulf peaking up steam again, the eastern outer band is pushing in rain now over parts of  Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southern Alabama and even the north-eastern sector of Florida. Apart from Harvey that does not want to die, the next tropical low is developing to the east of of the Carolina’s, This low will most likely become a cyclone over the next 24 hours and  will come very close to New York before it start to move away to the north-east to east. This may produce bands of rain over the coastal areas and as you call it nor-easterlies. You will now also have to keep watch on this system. The route of the storm as I have described is one possible route…   Then there is a 3rd tropical storm over western Mexico… Well.. this is already a lot to handle for the USA. Best of luck..     

Die baba koue front het nog ‘n bietjie reën gegooi oor veral die berg gebiede in die Kaap maar dit is nou nie emmers vol nie. 8mm by Nuweland sover, dit reën nog steeds en dan sowat 3.2 mm Milnerton se kant toe.  Klapmuts (suid-wes van die Paarl het 4.4mm sover.  Verder is daar net beter as stofnat reën oor die Tulbach/Ceres gebied.  Daar was ook enkele druppels in die Springbok gebied asook by Kleinsee. Oor die res van die land is dit sonnig en koel vanoggend, en dit is nog net die suidelike en suid-westelike dele van die Vrystaat waar temperature onder vriespunt draai. Die kouer lug in sirkulasie is meestal oor die suidelike en westelike binneland, terwyl dit in die noorde van die land al meer begin neig na laat winter, vroeë lente toestande, temperature aan die minimum kant is nou 10 C en hoër en daar is net soos met enige ander weer element uitsonderings.. sien lys van stasies…. 

Dit is die storie vir nou. Lekker dag verder,,,

​Goeie naand almal: Hallo Kenya: A few fine spots in the north and south=east, otherwise partly cloudy but overcast in the south-west with scattered showers and a few thundershowers..

USA: Harvey not yet done with eastern Texas but it does look as if the main now include states to the east and north-east. Perhaps not so bad over Louisiana, Alabama and Mississippi but even a couple of inches will test the drainage systems. Take care, it seem that Harvey will continue with more rain over the next couple of days.. As always, check with your local weatherman what is happening where.. Western and central Texas seem to be a lot better now, but it is still a lot of water on the ground that have to be managed to get to the Gulf… 

 Ai, ja dit het gereën oor dele van die Kaap maar die totale wat ek sien wys weereens nie vreeslike reën nie, Nuweland het 3.2mm gekry en Bellville 2.8mm, Paarl se kant toe 4.6mm en dan Wellington 4.4mm Tulbach Ceres gebiede sowat 6-7mm maar ook nou nie by alle die meetpunte in die streek nie. Vredendal het 0.2mm gekry maar verder noord sien ek niks. Daar is nou laatmiddag een stasie net wes van George wat 0.8mm wys en dit lyk of dit nog reën teen 6nm. Ander stasies in die streek wys sowat 0.2mm. Onthou, die syfers is vir spesifieke plekke, daar kan plekke wees met meer reën en dan sal daar plekke wees met minder reën of glad niks nie.. Dit reën seisoen in die Kaap is soos dit reën in die binneland, kolle sn strepe, net die berg gebiede in die suide wat altyd ietsie kry... 
Die eerste koue front slaan net-net sy stert, of liewer begin nou sy stert deur PE swaai terwyl daar nou ‘n baba koue front net-net by die Kaap uitgekom het. Die dele wat ek uitwys met geel is meestal middel en hoë wolke maar nie reën om van te praat nie. 
Ons moet almal duim vashou, al is dit ‘n baba koue front dat daar nog ‘n klompie reën sal val oor die Kaap… Die tyd vir winterreën is nou baie naby aan die einde van die siklus, en ons moet hoop dat daar somer en lente stelsels sal ontwikkel met ‘n paar harde buie reën en of donderstorms, dit kan ek nie nou aflei nie. 

Wel, dit is die storie vir nou, lekker aand verder….    

​Goeie môre almal: Hallo Kenya: Fine (sunny) in the far north-east and in the south-east, The rest mostly partly cloudy to cloudy. The light green marked areas show where there is a chance for showers later today.

USA:  Harvey still in place over south-east Texas, but look at the photo again, there are indications that another tropical low is forming over the Gulf, just south of Louisiana. The model that I am looking at show this low developing to tropical storm strength and it further show that it will start to move north and may include Mississippi and south Arkansas over the next 3-5 days, there may still be the odd rain band crossing over the eastern parts of Texas. The central and western parts of Texas seem to have cleared, hope for now it stays like that….. 

Daar het ligte reën begin val oor die Kaap, op die stadium meestal oor Tafelberg, en Nuweland staan op 1.2mm en Kloofnek op 0.8mm. Dit is ‘n bietjie pre-frontale reën, die koue front soos julle self kan sien het nog ‘n pas om te loop tot by die Kaap. Dit lyk of die ou die Kaap sal bereik met nog reën deur die loop van die dag en as alles goed gaan kan daar ook reën tot sover noord as Vredendal voorkom. Hoe verder noord moet jy/sy aanvaar sal die totale reën minder wees.  Die kuslaag is nou vroegoggend deur PE en voor die kuslaag is temperature reeds op party plekke oor KZN so hoog as 20 C, Die temperatuur Styging is a.g.v. aflandige vloei voor die kuslaag en ook die rede dat die brandgevaar oor die streek hoër sal wees vir vandag.. Neem kennis. Daar is wel ‘n raps beter bolug toestande oor die westelike binneland en die rede dat daar oral begin wolke uitslaan het oor dele van die land. Dit het ook gehelp dat meeste plekke vanoggend nie so rof koud is nie.. 
Daar is wel nog mis op plekke vanoggend op die hoëveld, nie vreeslik nie, maar net genoeg om sig te beperk. Ty versigtig. 
Die bolug is na my mening nie goed genoeg om regtig kolle met goeie reën te maak nie, maar dit help beslis om die vogvlakke effens hoër te hou, die beste is egter dat daar nou ‘n klem verskuiwing plaasvind na vroeë lente toestande en hopelik sal die erge koue oggende nou minder word. 

Lekker dag, hou duim vas vir die Kaap vir reën, die winter reënseisoen is amper verby, en nou moet ons begin duim vashou  dat die streel wel beter somer reën sal kry…….beter as normaal wat nie baie is nie…  

​Goeie naand almal: Hallo Kenya: Fine over the north/central parts, see yellow, lots of high cloud in the south-east with overcast patches on the extreme western border with showers, see green marked areas..

USA:  Harvey seem to have moved off-shore, meaning moved south over the warm water of the Gulf. Still patches rain over the eastern parts of Texas but any rain even a few points will maintain high ground water levels. If this model that I am looking at is more or less correct, it does seem to be correct (did forecast a possible re-development, and that means the extensive rain band will move further east over the next few days to include most of Louisiana, the western parts of Mississippi and the central and southern parts of Arkansas. May not be as much as has fallen (rain) over Texas but even normal tropical storms rain can produce significant amounts of rain and possible flooding. I have to start believe that this is more rain in a short period for more than a hundred years, may even be more.. Hope that the repairs that was done to New Orleans with the previous tropical storm (Katrina? I think.. I am not living in the USA, I am looking at it from very far away… southern Africa. Most people in SA follow what happens over there.. Take care the flooding may continue for most of the week, bur as said it does seem as if the worst is behind you in Texas, not saying there will be no further rain over eastern Texas.. 

Die laag wat die model voorspel het oor die Kaap @ 2nm is toe meer ‘n kuslaag as ‘n koue front laag. Dier laag sit nou verder oos en probeer hard om iets aan die gang te kry oor die Oos-Kaap, maar daar is buiten vir wolke nog nie reën om van te praat nie. Dit lyk miskien nou nie so erg nie, sonder veel moeite of hulp uit die bolug, staan Graskop vanmiddag al oor 15mm.. Ja, daar is ander kolle stofnat, maar net die hoogte bo seevlak en die opligting van die lugmassa by Graskop is genoeg vir lekker reën, 15mm in Augustus is lekker reën. 
Die koue front nou nog redelik ver suid-wes van Kaap begin effe beter vertoon )model) vir môremiddag by die Kaap met ‘n taamlike sterk noord-weste wind. Die huidige kuslaag skuif aan tot oor Durban @ môre 2nm. Dit lyk egter of daar ‘n oppervlakte trog/laag ontwikkel oor die Oos-Kaap, en al wat dit beteken die afkoelling agter die kuslaag sal beperk wees to ‘n dun strook langs die kus. 

Daar is effense lewe in die bolug vir môre en dit kan moontlik aanleiding gee tot ‘n paar milk en druk storms oor die oostelike dele van die land. Lyk my die lente reën wil sommer baie vroeg die jaar dinge begin doen vir die binneland, gegewe die huidige stand van seetemperature gebeur alles baie naby aan wat die klimaats toestande aandui… 

Dit is dit vir nou, lekker aand verder, en ek hou saam met die Kaap duim vas dat die koue front war oppad is meer reën sal maak as wat ek tans kan aflei…..

​Goeie môre almal: Hallo Kenya: Big areas over the central parts mostly sunny, while partly cloudy over the remainder of the country. There may one spot on the extreme north-west border with a few showers, see dark green, while the areas marked with light green may see a few afternoon and evening showers..

USA: Harvey still around over eastern Texas, a lot weaker but from what I can see not done yet. Western Louisiana as well as western Arkansas also seem to be getting rain, and then if you look carefully, not well organized yet, but it does look as if there is some development over the Gulf of Mexico, just to the south of Louisiana. That may be the next tropical low developing.. The model data seem to push this second low north over the next few days and will just add to the rain that has already fallen. Western Texas seem to be clearing.. As I have said before, do not think the system is gone when weather is improving, it may get worse again… Do not risk your live… 

 Die hoog oos van die land nog steeds sterk genoeg om vog en selfs reën in te jaag oor die noordelike platorand en daar is kolle met reën en naby aan Graskop het daar al reeds 11mm geval. Dit reën ook op Phalaborwa vanoggend waar die totaal al staan op 3.2mm. Die stasies van noord na suid oor die Krugerpark staan op 2-5mm en daar is selfs al 1mm by Marloth Park.   Daar het ook al tussen 1-=4mm geval in en om Tzaneen.
Ook weer ‘n paar kolle en strepe, stofnat oor KZN..
Daar is ‘n gedagte van ‘n koue front op die foto wes van die Kaap, maar die laag wat ek ingetrek het moet Volgens die model rondom 2nm oor die Kaap ontwikkel. Indien dit sou gebeur gaan ons pre-frontale warm weer kry vanaf vanmiddag oos van die laag en meer belangrik is dat die wind sterk kan toeneem oor die binneland. Warm en droeë pre-frontale toestande is die regte resep vir vure om weg te hardloop… moet dus nie iets begin wat jy nie kan beheer nie… moenie ‘n ou land skoon brand vandag nie, jy gaan  net moeilikheid optel… 
Ek kan dit amper nie glo nie, die temperature in die oggend oor die suid-oos Vrystaat en noordelike binneland van die Oos-Kaap bly ongelooflik koud in die oggende en vanoggend is die temperature weer goed onder vriespunt. 
Ons sal vannaand kan sien of die koue front wat die model voorspel wel ‘n bietjie reën  sal maak by die Kaap laat vanmiddag of vannag.. daar is ten minste iets aan die broei.. 

Dit is dit vir nou, lekker dag verder 

​Goeie naand almal: Hallo Kenya: Large parts fine from north to south-east, see yellow marked areas. Partly cloudy over the rest with a few overcast patches in the south-west with showers, see green marked area..

USA; Harvey may be weakening, as it should when it started to move inland, but still a well defined tropical low, just look somewhat further east. For now it seems to move further north, but from the new model data it does look as if Harvey will change it's route and starting to move south, next 36-48 hours, moving in over the warm water of the Gulf and Mexico, can get super charged again and then move north, this time round moving north slightly further east. It may also be a new tropical low developing, either way or this tropical rain will continue to dump enormous amounts of rain, over the next week…    The picture that I display is from very far out, there is a lot better close ups Available from your local weather service,,, and radar images. People should stay away from low lying areas prone to flooding, and even if you have the biggest and best truck, we call it a Bakkie , you Will be Swept away. Even a good thunderstorms in Pretoria South Africa, people get killed when a small river start to drain the storm water from the city and people try to cross a low water bridge, it happens just about every year… Not worth chasing storms and this event is big, rather huge… I am glad to see the response teams are well organized, but even the best efforts may not be able to save your life if you doing something stupid.. Always check with your local weather service and just think of it,  that it may be a force vacation for a couple of days… 

Nie regtig gedink dat daar ‘n kans is vir ‘n paar buie en of storms vanmiddag nie, wel ek was verkeerd, ‘n klomp stasies oor noord KZN wys almal beter as stofnat, meer as 0.2mm…  en dan sentraal Durban sover 1mm met Amanzimtoti noord wys ‘n lekker 10.2mm en dit reën nog steeds teen 6nm. Die plekke met moontlike buie storms het ek met ligter geel/oranje gemerk en alhoewel al die kolle reën maak nie,  kan ‘n weerligstraal op die verkeerde droeë bos ‘n vuur begin ongeag dat die brandgevaar indeks nie hoog is nie… Die koue front suid van die land het verder oos beweeg maar nie regtig reën langs die kus produseer nie. 
Augustus is besig om baie vinnig tot ‘n einde te kom maar dit word nog steeds koud oornag oor die sentrale binneland en baie koud oor die suid-Vrystaat en die noordelike dele van die Oos-Kaapse binneland.  
Klimaat toestande het binne die bestel van 10 dae heelwat beter geword vir die binneland, maar dit is nou minder gunstig vir die Kaap… 

Lekker aand en geniet die nuwe week…  

​Goeie môre almal: Hallo Kenya: Sunny from north to south-east, see yellow, with an isolated overcast spot on the extreme south-west border with showers. The light green area show where you can expect afternoon and evening showers.. 

USA: Harvey now a tropical depression , still a lot of rain. It does seem to have shifted somewhat further east and may now include the western parts of Louisiana and Arkansas. The last I have looked at the model data is that Harvey will continue to move south, move in over the warm seawater of the Gulf (breeding ground/water for tropical depressions and cyclones that may become hurricanes again) and then start to move north, inland, again, this time round Louisiana and Arkansas can also get lots of rain, and will include the eastern parts of Texas. For the moment, even if it does seem to ease, still take care and make sure from your local weatherman what’s up in the rain and wind… This is an unique system…

 Nie vreeslike reën nie, maar die kol eat ek met groen omkring het oor KZN maak oral stofnat kolle en Ladysmith het al 1.2mm gekry en dan ‘n klomp plekke met 0.2mm, Die beste reën oornag was in die Warden streek waar 5.6mm geval het. Dit is nie vreeslik baie reën nie maar 5mm na ‘n droeë koue winter klink na baie reën.. Daar is heelwat kolle met mis. Dus beperkte sig, ingesluit dele van JHB en die oostelike hoëveld, as jy oppad is wees versigtig en ry stadiger. Die geel kol wat ek ingetrek het dui op bewolkte kolle oor die noordelike binneland wat dele van Noord-Wes insluit. Daar is nie veel in die bolug om van te praat nie, so as daar dalk ‘n los storm, of twee ontwikkel sal dit ‘n 5-10% kans en verspreiding wees.
Koud tot baie koud oor die sentraal en suid-Vrystaat ingesluit die noordelike dele van die Oos-Kaap, en Selfs so ver wes as Upington wat by 2 C gedraai het in die dorp. Dit beteken daar kon kolle wees met ryp. Smithfield en Buffelsfontein jet weer om en by -8 C gedraai, dit is asof dit besonder koud is tot nou, amper al lente…
Die koue front suid van die land  kan dalk die suid-oos kus net-net skraap met ‘n paar buie maar ek dink nie dit sal veel wees nie.. 

Niks meer om oor te skryf nie, geniet die dag…